Not so long ago, Uganda was in an electricity quagmire – with big chunks of the country witnessing more darkness that light. Over the past few years, the East African country has revved up its electricity generation (and distribution) capacity. But observers say it is not yet out of the woods, as the current supply is likely to be outpaced by the fast-growing consumption side, in a few years.
Now boasting six hydropower dams and several off-grid solar power stations, Uganda produces some 2,048MW of electricity. In the last five years alone, two dams Karuma Hydro-power Dam with capacity of 600MW, and Isimba Dam with capacity of 183MW were commissioned catapulting the country’s installed power generation capacity to 2,048.1MW in the second half of 2024.
The current national energy peak consumption stands at 988MW, meaning there is a surplus of over 200MW – enough capacity to feed industry, for a few years.
But there remains a problem. Both in the energy quantity and its mix.
Energy Consumption per capita
According to Uganda’s latest National Population & Housing census (2024), the country’s population now stands at about 46million. Recent data from the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) shows that Uganda’s per capita electricity consumption is now approximately 100 kWh per year. To put this into perspective, compared to the world lowest per capita energy consumption – South Sudan (at 10-20kWh per year) or Chad (15kWh per year), Uganda is five times better than South Sudan.
However, compared to the league at the top, Uganda turns in low. It jabs significantly below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 552 kWh/year) and even further below par the global average of 2,975 kWh/year. A comparison with Germany at 6,787 kWh/year or China 5,600 kWh/year makes this gap clearer.
While the country’s population is growing fast, its electricity supply is not growing that fast- especially given the history of development of new electricity infrastructure. Karuma Dam took 12 years to be completed – started in 2013, it was only launched in September 2024. Isimba Dam took about six years, from 2013 – 2019. This means that in the next 10 years, Uganda will unlikely have a hydro power project of the magnitude of Karuma (at least 600KW).
Energy mix
The second problem is the country’s energy mix. According to the Electricity Regulatory Authority. currently, Uganda’s energy supply is 84 per cent from hydropower. The other forms of electricity combined contribute only 16 per cent to the energy basket. These include bagasse electricity (7 per cent), thermal electricity (5 per cent) and solar (4 per cent).
This mix, industry experts say, makes the country’s energy supply highly climate dependent- vulnerable. David Kisembo, a former power distributor told The Infrastructure Magazine that stability of hydroelectricity is weather dependent which makes power supply unstable.
“A few years ago, we saw the country plunge into severe darkness because of prolonged dry spells causing water lines to recede. We have also seen plenty of rain causing floating vegetation to chock hydropower dams as it happened in Nalubaale dam in 2020,” Kisembo said.
Kisembo added that the country’s effort to grow its electricity stock is slow because of the nature of the projects, citing three big power project prospects along the River Nile – Ayago (840mw), Kiba (400mw) and Oriang (392mw) which have taken long to get to execution.
“The country must wait for at least 10 years from start to finish of a power project before its energy capacity can increase and by the time it does, the demand has also grown by about 100%,” he said.
The International Energy Agency puts Uganda’s energy demand growth at 10% annually.
Players have their say
Kisembo said the slow growth in the electricity stock is often marred by challenges in securing finances and partnerships to move the projects forward as in many cases, funders and partners want clear terms on how they can benefit from the projects themselves.
“Most notably, the success of the electricity projects largely depends on the government’s ability to secure financial backing and forging partnerships with international stakeholders,” he said.
Aaron Ssesanga of Aaron Electrical Services told The Infrastructure Magazine that vandalism is a new problem plaguing electricity distribution in the country. He said the country loses billions of shillings annually to vandals who cut and steal cables.
Ssesanga says electricity related crimes like vandalism are a widespread global crime common even in developed countries like Germany. For Uganda to successfully deal with it, he advised that government should increase security measures and digitize its monitoring systems throughout the country to improve oversight and reduce rate of theft.
Frank Otema, an electrical engineer with MK Electrical Engineering Solutions, said the government should re-evaluate its grid investments to assess its vulnerabilities. “More renewable energy sources will increase the complexity of operating a grid, requiring new ways to balance power supply and demand, provide voltage support and prevent blackouts,” he recommended.
He said it is time for the country to adopt smart grid, an electricity network that enables a two-way flow of electricity and data with digital communications technology that allows detection, reaction and proactive changes in relation to usage and multiple issues.
“This means anything from a modernized power grid infrastructure to advanced sensors and appliances that communicate with the utility company and provide detailed data about usage.”
Okema said diversification of the country’s energy mix is a matter of urgency. He said government plans to set up nuclear power stations in the country are long overdue.
“Considering the vast sunlight hours that Uganda enjoys, solar energy investments should be encouraged and if possible incentivized to get pressure off electricity usage,” counselled.
He said low interest loans for solar investments and tax reduction on importation of solar panels, appliances and other solar related equipment should be the government top priority in attracting the population to solar energy usage to stop over dependence on hydro power.
In its efforts to improve access to clean energy, the government created the Uganda Energy Credit Capitalisation Company (UEECCC) in 2009 with the aim of providing energy sector players with financing to drive access to electricity.
Roy Nyamutale Baguma, Executive Director EUCCC said since its inception, 1,4887 energy connections have been facilitated for households, commercial enterprises and institutions.
The body recently launched price subsidy programme in Kiboga District with financial support from the World Bank and Government of Uganda. The subsidy saw solar lantern prices going down by up to 60 per cent.
“Ugandans across the country will benefit from big price discounts on various eligible clean energy technologies,” Baguma said.
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